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It’s a numbers kind of Monday: a $39.3m surplus, a possible $412m bill for Grand Bahama Power, and inspectors arriving today to grade our financial-crime rules.

Let's get into it.

Missed the House debate? Here’s the short version. The Government says it balanced the books for the first time since independence, with a $39.3m surplus for the year ending June. The Opposition says the number leaves out something big.

That “something” is roughly $310m. Everything below comes down to whether it counts.

The Government’s case

Revenue rose 16.6% to $3.96bn, while spending rose 12.6% to $3.92bn. Davis credited stronger tax collection and pointed out it happened in an election year. He also toned down the victory lap, saying the voyage is “not complete.”

The Opposition’s case

Shadow Minister of Finance Kwasi Thompson says roughly $310m was spent through the National Investment Fund (NIF) on airports, roads, water systems and courts, and never made it into the surplus. Add it back, he argues, and you’re in a deficit of more than $270m. FNM chairman Duane Sands adds that loss-making state companies paying dividends and receiving short-term loans helped the books look better.

Davis told Thompson the numbers are there, and that the Government reports on a modified cash basis.

Here’s the thing… The Finance Ministry’s own report shows the surplus landed $36.2m short of its $75.5m target. The Government was still $91.4m in the red through May, then June alone produced a $130.7m surplus. That month included $68.6m from the new minimum tax on large multinationals, collection of VAT arrears, and dividends from state entities. The figures are preliminary and unaudited.

Fidelity Bank CEO Gowon Bowe says arrears are one-time money, so this surplus is unlikely to repeat. He says he’s not alleging wrongdoing and that the country is on “solid ground.” The Chamber of Commerce congratulated the Government, then said it will check whether this is genuine improvement or accounting timing.

The NIF mystery

The Opposition-led Public Accounts Committee, chaired by FNM leader Michael Pintard, says it still hasn’t seen records confirming about $700m was deposited into the Fund. The NIF Act says only the Fund’s board can open its accounts, and Pintard says that board was never convened.

The Government says it acted on Attorney General’s Office advice that, until the Act is fully active, the Fund falls under the Ministry of Finance. Current AG Wayne Munroe and predecessor Ryan Pinder were due before the committee on Thursday.

The bottom line

The committee expects to report on the NIF and the $1.5m building-voucher probe by mid-November. The PLP disputes the Opposition’s voucher claims. Audited figures will matter too, since this one is still provisional.

Solve this dead easy Bahamian history question:

According to the 1903 Bahama Expedition, which group is credited with introducing pineapples to The Bahamas?

A) Spanish settlers
B) German refugees
C) American Loyalists
D) British soldiers

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

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France is furious about the cost of living. On Tuesday, its government votes on the first part of a budget with €54 billion in savings. Saturday showed how tense the gap between those two has become.

Around 550,000 people marched in scores of cities, 110,000 of them in Paris, according to authorities. They were angry about living costs and declining public services, and the marches followed a month-long student movement over teacher shortages and school conditions. Most protested peacefully. Violent fringe groups did not.

The Interior Ministry says almost 2,400 people were arrested and nearly 1,000 police and gendarmes were injured. In Limoges, the 143-year-old town hall was set ablaze and largely destroyed. In Bordeaux, the mayor says up to 100 stores were looted. Police said one protester died of cardiac arrest in Paris.

Macron addressed the nation Sunday night. “Nothing justifies it, nothing explains it, nothing excuses it,” he said, promising an “uncompromising” response to “ultra-left” agitators and “delinquents.” He stopped short of a state of emergency or curfew, but prefects and mayors will be allowed to ban certain gatherings. He also ordered a review of whether intelligence or police preparedness failed, and asked the government to bring students, teachers, lawmakers, unions and business leaders together this week for “concrete proposals.”

Here’s why that’s hard. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu leads a minority government, meaning it doesn’t control the National Assembly on its own, and it’s trying to cut the deficit. France’s debt hit a record €3.6 trillion in the second quarter, 119% of GDP, and it’s getting more expensive to service as interest rates rise worldwide.

Opponents on both flanks weighed in. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, frontrunner for next year’s presidential race, said the government is “running on fumes, exhausted and disoriented.” Far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also a candidate, said Macron must answer the students’ demands or risk “events that will eventually become uncontrollable.”

What to watch: Tuesday’s vote, and whether this week’s talks produce anything the protesters will accept.

🔎 Financial-crime inspectors arrive today, right after the House passed the Anti-Terrorism (Amendment) Bill, which closes a gap on freezing assets tied to UN sanctions. The Caribbean Financial Action Task Force evaluation runs Oct. 19–30. The Opposition backed the bill but questioned its timing. Suspicious transaction reports also rose 50% in 2025, to 1,402.

💡 Eleuthera residents are threatening to stop paying BPL over outages they say last up to 10 hours and appliances damaged by surges. BPL blames a damaged engine and wire at Hatchet Bay plus rental generator problems, says repairs are done, and points to 20 MW of new gas generation before summer 2027.

🛒 AML Foods has opened a second Exuma store, a Solomon’s at Hooper’s Bay that’s larger than its Georgetown location and brings back a butcher shop. AML’s marketing VP calls Family Island costs “very, very expensive,” citing a 50% shipping charge before duty or VAT and a Tropical Shipping surcharge hike on Nov. 8.

⚡ Taxpayers could be on the hook for up to $412m for Grand Bahama Power, says Grand Bahama Chamber president Ralph Hepburn, adding up $200m for the purchase, $80m for repairs and $131.82m in legacy loans. The House approved $331.82m in borrowing to refinance GBPC debt, which the Government says adds no new debt.

🏛️ Minister Myles Laroda denies taking money from convicted drug trafficker Eric Gardiner, after MP Andre Rollins asked in the House whether Gardiner funded the PLP and said firms linked to him won government contracts. Laroda said he doesn’t recall meeting him and noted FNM-era patronage. Gardiner has pleaded not guilty to US charges, with trial set for March 1, 2027.

💼 A Bahamian firm is tied to Brazil’s $430m Banco Master fraud lawsuit, filed Oct. 7 in a Florida bankruptcy court. The liquidator alleges a Bahamian fund at Mosaic Financial’s Caves Village address received more than $430m diverted from the bank. Mosaic isn’t a named defendant, calls the claims false and says it is a victim.

🍗 KFC is dropping Pepsi for Coke at its roughly 3,700 U.S. restaurants, ending a partnership of nearly 40 years. The switch starts in January 2027 and should finish by spring. KFC calls it part of a wider comeback plan, and Pepsi stays on internationally.

🎤 Press secretary Katie Zacharia is out after five days, according to the New York Times. A White House official says she is “transitioning out of the role,” and Trump says he urged her to reconsider. Her first briefing was rocky, and she drew questions over calling herself an attorney.

📱 Apple’s first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, is sold out for Christmas. Pre-orders opened Oct. 16, and shipping estimates now run into 2027, with Jan. 25 in the U.S. and Jan. 26 in Canada. The launch is Oct. 23. Some stores may have walk-in stock, but supply looks tight.

🕵️ OpenAI is warning staff about “honey pot” spies, per the Wall Street Journal, meaning agents who use romance to get close to targets. Advice includes no branded clothing in public. Separately, the FBI arrested a Saudi employee Oct. 9, accused of planting a recording device in an executive conference room.

🗳️ Alberta votes today, Monday, Oct. 19, on its future in Canada, according to AP. Prime Minister Mark Carney told a pro-Canada rally in Calgary on Thursday that the U.S. is trying to break Canada so it can “own us,” and that the referendum “comes at the worst possible time.”

✈️ The first U.S. flight of third-country deportees has landed in Jamaica, with arrivals taken to an undisclosed location. Under a deal with Washington, Jamaica is a transit point for up to 25 people every two weeks, none with criminal records, at no cost to Jamaica, the government says.

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Your brand could be here. Unlike Dairymaid, you still have time. Reply to this email to advertise with The Bay Street Brief. 🇧🇸

B) German refugees

The expedition’s published report credits German refugees who settled in The Bahamas after 1718 with introducing pineapples, which later became an important export crop.

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— The Bay Street Brief Team