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Election season is in full swing, oil markets are still a mess, and Fitch has some notes on the government's books. Let's get into it.

Since Prime Minister Philip Davis dissolved Parliament on April 8, with Bahamians set to vote on May 12, campaigning has shifted into another gear. If you haven’t noticed the billboards and signs at every roundabout, you must be driving in reverse.

Here is what each party has been up to this past week.

👌 The PLP: The PLP held its Rally for Progress at R.M. Bailey Park on Saturday night, showcasing its eastern New Providence candidates. The night leaned heavily on attacking the FNM's time in office. Deputy Leader Chester Cooper dismissed the FNM campaign as political theatre. Yamacraw candidate Zhane Lightbourne pointed to over 13,000 repatriations and more than 500 shantytown structures demolished under the current government. The party is running on the VAT cut, infrastructure investment, and economic management. The questions voters are pushing back on: a cost of living that is still squeezing people, and a criticism the FNM and others have raised repeatedly, that the government has not been transparent enough about how public money is spent.

🔥 The FNM: Opposition Leader Michael Pintard delivered a national broadcast on Saturday outlining concerns about the Davis administration's record on housing, immigration, and the treatment of healthcare workers. Also on Saturday night, the FNM held its first Grand Bahama rally at party headquarters in Freeport, with candidates for all five GB constituencies taking the stage. Pintard closed the night by framing the PLP's early election call as a government that walked off the job with five months left and is now asking voters for another contract. The party has indicated it will release its 2026 manifesto this weekend, which will be the clearest signal yet of what a Pintard government would actually commit to.

🖤 The COI: Yesterday the COI launched Part 2 of their First 100 Days Plan at their Chippingham headquarters. Their agenda includes merging the Ministries of Immigration and National Security, Crown land redistribution giving every Bahamian adult at least one acre, a 100-megawatt solar plant within six months, and full Freedom of Information legislation. On immigration, they are proposing to eliminate naturalisation entirely within the first week in office. Legal experts have noted that citizenship is governed by the Constitution, meaning that change would require a referendum before any legislation could take effect. Bain also raised election integrity concerns this past week, delivering a cease-and-desist letter to the Parliamentary Registration Department over police custody of the ballot vault. The Parliamentary Commissioner denied any breach. No third party has ever produced a Prime Minister in the independent Bahamas. Their real power in this election is likely as spoilers in tight constituencies.

The bottom line: Twenty-nine days. Pay attention.

About 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Most people never thought about it until February 28, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran and Iran responded by closing it entirely. Six weeks of the largest oil supply shock on record followed. This past week was supposed to be the week things got better.

It was not quite that simple.

Tuesday: A ceasefire, briefly celebrated.

On Tuesday evening, President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, under which the US and Israel would halt strikes on Iran and Iran would reopen the strait to shipping. Markets responded immediately. Oil dropped 16 percent in a single day. The Dow had its best session in a year. By Wednesday morning, Iran had closed it again.

Israel had continued strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which Iran said violated the ceasefire terms. The White House said Lebanon was never part of the deal. VP Vance called it a "legitimate misunderstanding." Oil climbed back above $97 a barrel by Thursday.

The rest of the week: something new every day.

Traffic through the strait remained a fraction of normal. Before the war, an average of 129 vessels transited daily. In the first two days of the ceasefire, 12 ships made it through. Meanwhile Iran was reportedly charging tolls of up to two million dollars per vessel, a fee funnelling directly to its Revolutionary Guard. Trump called it "dishonorable." Saudi Arabia reported damage to its East-West pipeline, one of the only oil export routes that bypasses the strait entirely.

This weekend: talks collapse, a blockade begins.

On Saturday, two US Navy destroyers transited the strait to begin mine-clearing operations. Simultaneously, VP Vance led a US delegation to Islamabad for direct talks with Iran, the first face-to-face meeting between the two governments since 1979. After 21 hours, the talks ended without a deal. Iran would not commit to surrendering its nuclear program. Vance said Iran had "chosen not to accept our terms" and departed. On Sunday, Trump announced that the US Navy would blockade the strait effective immediately. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned that military vessels approaching would face a "forceful response."

Here is the part should hurt your head: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz six weeks ago. That was the crisis. The entire ceasefire negotiation, the mine-clearing operation, the 21 hours in Islamabad… all of it was aimed at getting Iran to reopen a waterway Iran had shut. Then the talks collapsed and Trump announced the United States would now blockade the same strait.

Basically, the thing that was closed is still closed. Whether that ends the crisis faster or extends it is genuinely unclear. What is clear is that nobody is closer to opening it than they were on Tuesday morning when everyone briefly thought the problem was solved.

Why we should care: The Bahamas imports virtually all of its fuel, and six weeks of disruption are already showing up in everyday life. Bahamasair introduced a fuel surcharge in March after its jet fuel costs jumped 55 percent, Western Air warned fares could increase, and the Bahamas Association of Air Transport Operators warned the wider aviation sector is bracing for fares to rise by up to 10 percent across all carriers. At the pump, prices were already creeping up before the ceasefire was announced. The PM has said electricity bills will be protected for now, but freight costs, transport costs, and grocery prices are all in the mix.

Columbia University energy analysts warned this week that oil prices are unlikely to meaningfully decline until the strait fully reopens and damaged export infrastructure is repaired.

Both of those things are now further away than they were on Tuesday morning.

One of these headlines below is completely fake. Can you spot it?

A.. German mayors are pushing to ban robotic lawnmowers at night to protect hedgehogs that freeze instead of fleeing

B. People in the US and UK are paying up to $1,000 to attend silent group reading retreats with strangers.

C. Netflix is testing a "spoiler mode" that shows the ending of a film first, aimed at anxiety-prone viewers who struggle to finish movies.

D. The White House warned staff not to place bets on prediction markets tied to the Iran conflict after concerns over suspicious trading activity.

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer!

🦈 Our Sharks Have A Substance Problem. So Does Our Water: A new study found cocaine, caffeine, and common painkillers in the blood of sharks off Eleuthera, with researchers linking it to tourism-driven wastewater and coastal development. The cocaine ones? Scientists suspect they bit drug packets that fell overboard. First time caffeine has been detected in any shark species worldwide, and a reminder that what we dump in the water doesn't stay there.

⛽ Good News If You Drive Electric. Kinda: Minister of State for Environment and Natural Resources Lightbourne is pointing to EV drivers as the quiet winners of the current fuel crunch, with Easy Car Sales estimating their Bahamian customers have collectively saved around $5 million in fuel costs over ten years. Bus drivers, meanwhile, are warning they may take action if the government doesn't provide relief. One group is doing fine. The other needs help.

🏗️ A Big Deal for Freeport: Concord Wilshire has signed a deal with MSC's cruise division to develop a Beach Club at the Grand Lucayan, the first concrete development announcement since acquiring the property nearly a year ago. Environmental approvals are still needed before anything breaks ground, but MSC's broader Bahamas commitments across all projects total roughly $1.5 billion. Grand Bahama's private sector is calling it the real thing.

🏊 Eight Straight. Zero Officials: Team Bahamas came home from Martinique with their eighth consecutive CARIFTA Swimming title and walked through LPIA to find not a single government official waiting for them. Bahamas Aquatics president Algernon Cargill pointed this out. Sports Minister Mario Bowleg's response was to accuse Cargill of making it political. Sort that out, please.

🚤 The Boating Fees Saga Continues: Revised boating fee tiers kicked in April 1st with zero advance notice, leaving marinas scrambling to tell visitors it wasn't an April Fools' joke. The Association of Bahamas Marinas president says inconsistent enforcement remains a problem, with the same clearance process reportedly costing one boater $200 in Harbour Island and another $50 in Nassau. Better than before. Not fixed yet.

🌀 A Bahamian Brand Going Regional: Tropical Gyros owner Chef Kevin Culmer is in talks to open at least five franchise locations in the Dominican Republic, building on a growing Nassau footprint. This follows a difficult Freeport chapter where Culmer told an industrial tribunal the location closed after a $500,000 loss and a significant theft ring. The DR expansion is moving forward regardless.

🤖 The AI That Has Wall Street Losing Sleep: Anthropic released a new AI model called Mythos this week in limited capacity, after determining it could identify and exploit vulnerabilities in major software systems so effectively that broad release would be dangerous. The US Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chair responded by summoning Wall Street's top bank CEOs to an emergency meeting to ensure financial institutions are taking precautions. The age of AI-powered cyberattacks is no longer theoretical.

✈️ Summer Travel Is About To Get Expensive: European airports are warning of a systemic jet fuel shortage within three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz, effectively closed since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, does not reopen. Jet fuel is already trading around $195 a barrel, more than double last year, with airlines cancelling flights and raising ticket prices. If you’re thinking about visiting Europe, maybe time to pull the trigger?

🌕 Humans Just Went Around the Moon and Came Back: NASA's Artemis II crew splashed down safely off San Diego on Friday after a nearly 10-day journey around the Moon, the first crewed lunar mission since Apollo 17 in 1972. Four astronauts, one spacecraft, the furthest humans have travelled from Earth in over fifty years.

🇹🇼 China and Taiwan Just Had Their Most Significant Conversation in a Decade: Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's largest opposition party, in Beijing on Friday, the first such meeting between the two parties' leaders in nearly a decade. The meeting comes weeks before Trump is set to visit China, where Taiwan is expected to be high on the agenda. Two sides that rarely speak just spoke. The timing is not a coincidence.

Robin Hood gave Bahamians the best deals in town for decades. Appliances, furniture, electronics. Everyone knew the name.

Did they advertise in a weekly newsletter reaching engaged, deal-hungry Bahamians? They did not. Are they still open? They are not.

Coincidence?!?

Probably. But why risk it?

Your brand could be here. Unlike Robin Hood, you still have time. Reply to this email to advertise with The Bay Street Brief. 🇧🇸

Last week, Fitch Ratings, one of the world's major credit agencies, released its updated assessment of The Bahamas. The headline grade held steady at BB- with a stable outlook. But the details inside the report are worth more attention than the headline.

The surplus target is in question.

Prime Minister Philip Davis told Parliament last month that the country is "firmly on course" toward a $75 million budget surplus for this fiscal year. Fitch is not convinced. The agency is projecting a small deficit instead, pointing to rising oil prices and an expected tourism slowdown as the main pressures. The government did lock in a fuel deal at $70 a barrel back in December before prices started climbing, which provides some protection. But with oil rising since Trump's military campaign in Iran began in February, that buffer is being tested. The government's fiscal progress over the past few years is real — last year's deficit was the smallest since 2001. Whether the surplus materialises or not, a major ratings agency now publicly doubts it will, and that has consequences for how expensive it becomes for The Bahamas to borrow money.

Fitch projects economic growth will slow from 2.8 percent last year to 2.2 percent in 2026. Not a crisis number, but not enough to meaningfully reduce unemployment or grow government revenues at the pace fiscal targets require. Fidelity Bank CEO Gowon Bowe said plainly this week that the country cannot keep ignoring these projections. His concern is not just the numbers but what they imply: there is no visible long-term plan to change them. Cruise numbers are up, but stopover visitors are flat. The cruise lines are building their own private islands and adding The Bahamas as a short stop. That is not a national tourism strategy. Without a credible plan to grow beyond it, revenue targets become harder to hit every year.

The GBPC deal is a liability the government has not fully accounted for publicly.

The government passed resolutions in Parliament to guarantee $280 million in loans for the takeover of the Grand Bahama Power Company — $200 million to acquire it and $80 million for running and repair costs. If GBPC cannot repay those loans, taxpayers are on the hook. Fitch flagged this directly, noting that the government's exposure through guarantees on state-owned companies could nearly double if the deal goes through. What makes this harder to dismiss is the sequence of events. Parliament approved the borrowing first. Only after that did the regulator URCA begin its review of whether the deal is actually in the public interest. That review is still ongoing. The FNM has called on the government to table the debt assessment report that legislation requires. It has not been tabled.

The bottom line: The surplus may still happen. But this Fitch report is a useful reminder that the margin for error is narrowing. A slowing economy, growing taxpayer exposure from GBPC, and no clear growth strategy are not three separate problems. They are the same problem from three different angles. Election season is here. Watch what gets said, and watch what does not.

The fake headline was C. Netflix is not, as far as anyone knows, testing a spoiler mode. We made it up. The fact that it was kinda believable says something about where streaming is headed. Moving on.

A is real. Mayors across Germany are lobbying for a nighttime ban on robotic lawnmowers after concerns that hedgehogs, which freeze in place when scared rather than run, are being quietly mowed over in the dark. The robots do not know. The hedgehogs cannot tell them. Legislation is apparently the only solution.

B is real. Travelling silent reading retreats are selling out across the US and UK at up to $1,000 a ticket. The pitch is simple: a curated space, strangers, no phones, just books. Burnout culture has apparently reached the point where people will pay four figures to sit quietly with a paperback and people they've never met. We respect it.

D is real. The White House quietly warned staff last month not to place bets on prediction markets tied to the Iran conflict, following concerns about suspicious trading activity around sensitive geopolitical events. So yes. People with access to classified information about an active war were apparently logging into betting platforms. The warning had to be issued. Officially. In writing.

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That's all for this week.

Thanks for sticking through the first edition! I really appreciate you taking the time out of your day. Check us out on our socials for updates throughout the week.

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team