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TOP OF THE MORNING!

Welcome to The Bay Street Brief!

Hope everybody enjoyed National Heroes Day and the day off! We celebrated so hard, we had to give ourselves another public holiday.

Let's get into it.

IN THE MARKETS

Global markets
Asset / Index Last price / Weekly change % YTD return
BISX All-Share
Bahamas 🇧🇸
3,321.2
-0.6%
▲ 6.8%
S&P 500
US equities 🇺🇸
7,811.5
+1.2%
▲ 14.1%
Euro Stoxx 600
European equities 🇪🇺
631.6
No change
▲ 6.6%
Brent Crude
Oil per barrel 🛢️
$104.72
+2.4%
▲ 72.1%
Gold
Per oz 🥇
$4,193.87
+1.3%
▼ -2.9%
Bitcoin
Crypto ₿
$82,983.44
-1.8%
▼ -5.3%
Nikkei 225
Japan equities 🇯🇵
69,030.9
+1.1%
▲ 37.1%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong equities 🇭🇰
24,211.4
+1.0%
▼ -5.5%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Developing economies 🌎
1,708.8
No change
▲ 21.7%

Wall Street shrugged off a messy week to finish ahead, with the S&P 500 up 1.2% (the Dow added 0.9% and the Nasdaq 0.6%). It wasn't a smooth ride. US 10- and 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2002 before strong bond auctions calmed things down, and Fed meeting minutes showed most policymakers still expect another rate hike before year-end. Meanwhile a key gauge of what US service businesses are paying for inputs hit its highest reading since mid-2022, and consumer sentiment slid to a five-month low.

Brent crude climbed 2.4% to $104.72, briefly topping $105 on Thursday after reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Here's why that matters at home: our dollar is pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, so higher oil prices and higher US borrowing costs both land on our tab, at the pump, on the light bill and eventually on loan rates.

Europe went nowhere fast, with the STOXX 600 essentially flat. Big country splits hid underneath: France fell 1.2% and Italy 1.5%, while the UK's FTSE 100 gained 0.9%. European Central Bank minutes warned inflation will stay well above target, and German factory orders dropped 10.6% in August, which is not the kind of number you want in your back pocket.

Japan's Nikkei rose 1.1% on early AI chip enthusiasm and is now up 37.1% for the year, even with the yen sagging near 158 to the dollar. Tokyo also approved cutting the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years starting April 2027. In China, mainland stocks slipped after reopening from Golden Week as tech names got hammered, but the Hang Seng gained 1.0% on a Friday tech rebound.

Local markets
The Leaders
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
AML
AML Foods Limited
$11.50
No change
▲ +72.9%
$6.55$11.50
FAM
Family Guardian
$10.50
No change
▲ +54.4%
$6.80$10.50
BOB
Bank of the Bahamas
$8.21
+0.7%
▲ +35.5%
$5.50$9.50
The Slackers
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
FBB
Fidelity Bank Bahamas
$12.18
No change
▼ -25.0%
$12.00$16.30
CWCB
Consolidated Water
$6.12
+6.3%
▼ -13.3%
$5.50$6.90
BFH
Bahamas First Holdings
$2.40
No change
▼ -11.1%
$2.00$3.15

Most shares didn't budge, and the dip came mainly from CIBC Caribbean (CIB, down 3.0%) and Emera (EMAB, down 3.9%). On the bright side, Consolidated Water (CWCB) jumped 6.3% to $6.12, though it's still the second-worst performer of the year at -13.3%. The podium didn't change: AML Foods, Family Guardian and Bank of the Bahamas still lead, and Fidelity Bank Bahamas (FBB) is still stuck at the bottom at -25.0%.

THE MAIN THING

The Power Struggle

An electrical fault set off an explosion near a classroom at CC Sweeting Senior High on Oct. 5. Three students got minor burns, and the school closed for about a week.

Teachers say it was the fourth fire-related incident since classes resumed. They also say they warned officials the campus couldn’t handle the 28 AC units installed over the summer. Education Minister Chester Cooper blamed BPL wiring, but the matter touches Bahamas Grid Company, BPL, contractors and the Ministry of Works.

Why now?

Because it’s not just one school. Outages sent students home early at Sandilands Primary and Eva Hilton Primary, and they’ve kept rolling across New Providence. In Eleuthera, Chamber president Thomas Sands says businesses are dealing with lost sales, damaged equipment and spoiled food.

Cooper said school outages could be a “learning opportunity.” FNM deputy leader Shanendon Cartwright called that dismissive, and Cooper hit back.

FNM leader Michael Pintard accused the Government of dishonesty after Bahamas Grid Company declined to explain the latest outages. FNM MP Kwasi Thompson told the House that two elderly East Grand Bahama residents died at home after outages cut their oxygen equipment. That’s his allegation, and we haven’t independently confirmed it. He also urged more relief for seniors, whose Social Services utility aid is capped at $600 a year.

Meanwhile, a Supreme Court judge granted BEWU president Kyle Wilson an injunction stopping BPL from firing him amid the overtime-pay row.

Then there’s Grand Bahama

Finance Minister Michael Halkitis says the Government will seek to borrow just over $331m to refinance Grand Bahama Power Company’s debt. That’s the $200m used to buy it from Emera in May plus $131.82m in legacy loans. Translation: it all becomes direct taxpayer debt.

Here’s the catch. The $80m in capital works funding Parliament approved before the election still hasn’t reached the utility. Union leaders were told GB Power could be “in financial trouble come January” without it.

GB Chamber president Ralph Hepburn puts total taxpayer exposure near $412m. He fears GB Power’s 90 to 95 percent reliability will slip, and says businesses haven’t seen lower bills under the new rate structure. The fuel charge above 800kWh rose from 17 to 21 cents.

What to watch

Three things. Whether the $80m reaches GB Power before January. Whether anyone takes the blame for the CC Sweeting blast. And whether the Government responds to Thompson’s claim about the two seniors.

WEEKLY QUIZ

Solve this dead easy Bahamian history question:

During the American Revolution, American forces captured Nassau in 1775 hoping to seize what?

A) Gold and silver
B) British warships
C) Stores of gunpowder
D) Sugar and rum

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

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Now Popsmith is raising capital to accelerate its next stage of growth, and individual investors have the opportunity to become shareholders.

WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?

Riyadh Under Fire

If you’ve been tuning out the Iran war, time to pay attention again. On Saturday, Oct. 10, a Houthi missile hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh Saudi Arabia, killing 12 and wounding more than 300, according to Saudi authorities. They called it the deadliest attack on the kingdom in over a decade.

The Houthis hit the same airport again Sunday. Saudi Arabia confirmed one more death and 11 injuries, and flights were still halted as of Oct. 13.

Saudi Arabia has vowed to retaliate, and President Trump says he’s weighing whether to join strikes on the Houthis. One weird detail: Reuters reports Riyadh stopped issuing public warnings of imminent attacks in the days before the deadly strike, and hasn’t said why.

Meanwhile, Hormuz isn’t budging

Iran’s IRGC Navy says a supertanker hit a naval mine after using an “unauthorised route.” US Central Command says a US jet disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship trying to run its blockade. CENTCOM’s tally since reimposing the blockade in mid-July is four vessels disabled, 135 turned back and 10 tankers destroyed.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council called the US response to its seven conditions for reopening the strait “insufficient” and says it has stopped answering. Yet Iran’s foreign ministry says it’s willing to help broker talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

The world weighs in

Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia jointly condemned the Houthi attacks as a dangerous escalation. Sixty countries, including EU members, the UK and Australia, signed a declaration backing freedom of navigation and opposing tolls on international straits. The Bahamas has condemned the attack as well. Sources close to the Houthis say they are “reviewing their options.” (We made that up. Please don’t tell them.)

CONCH FRITTERS

From Over Here

⛽ Fuel prices keep climbing, with an Exuma Shell operator reporting gasoline at $7.56 and diesel near $7.96 a gallon, the highest he recalls. Esso dealers were told gasoline would rise from $7.06 to as much as $7.50. One retailer urged Government to cut VAT and the ad valorem tax.

📊 The economy shrank 1.4% in Q4 2025, the first quarterly contraction since 2020, FNM finance spokesman Kwasi Thompson told Parliament, citing Fitch. Fitch forecasts growth slowing to 1.8% in 2026. Labour Minister Pia Glover-Rolle welcomed a third straight quarterly fall in unemployment.

🏖️ The public path to Cabbage Beach will close during the roughly 30-month build of the $550m Four Seasons Ocean Club Residences, with a permanent 15-foot path required afterward. A construction fence has gone up and come down twice, and a Dis We Beach petition passed 500 signatures in two days.

🏝️ About 40 workers lost their jobs when Agave Restaurant at Port Lucaya Marketplace closed, the Department of Labour says. A GB Chamber survey found 62.8% of businesses name the cost of doing business as their biggest obstacle. PLP chairman Fred Mitchell pressed cruise lines to share traffic with Port Lucaya.

🧓 The Older Persons Bill proposes fines of up to $50,000 for financial exploitation of the elderly and requires an annual progress report to Parliament. Health Minister Dr Michael Darville said relatives who genuinely can’t afford care, or are estranged from the person, won’t be criminalised.

🪙 Digital asset business involving The Bahamas shrank more than 70% in the year after FTX collapsed, the Securities Commission says. It says less than 3% of transactions in the nearly two years to end-July 2026 were linked to crime. The sector serves 2.15m clients holding $33.65bn, over 99.9% overseas.

From Foreign

🛢️ Trump says Russia will release diesel to global markets, starting with 300,000 tonnes, after an Oct 9 call with Putin. Zelenskyy called the deal unfair, and Trump urged Ukraine to replace him. Russia struck a Kharkiv power plant after Trump’s Oct 11 “energy ceasefire.”

🏚️ A magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit Panama’s Herrera province on Friday, Oct 9, collapsing buildings and roads in the central region. At least two people were injured, and no deaths were initially reported. Panama City’s airport closed temporarily, and the Canal Authority said shipping was normal.

🇮🇳 Thousands of opposition supporters marched to India’s Supreme Court on Oct 12, including Rahul Gandhi, demanding Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar resign over a voter-roll revision. Media reports say over 133 million names were removed. The Election Commission says it targeted duplicate, dead and fraudulent entries.

🇵🇰 Pakistan has declared a state of emergency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a province led by Imran Khan’s opposition party, imposing direct federal control on Oct 11. Khan’s party condemned the move as political, and several of its politicians were arrested.

🇯🇲 Jamaica expects its first flight of “third-country nationals” removed by the US under a new bilateral deal, after the IOM agreed to provide support services. People can transit Jamaica before going home or elsewhere, with intake capped at 25 every two weeks.

🇬🇩 Grenada heads to the polls Nov 5 after PM Dickon Mitchell called a general election nearly a year early. His NDC held a 9 to 6 majority. He faces the NNP under Emmalin Pierre, the first woman to lead it into an election, and Peter David’s new Democratic People’s Movement.

PRESENTED BY: (NOT REALLY BUT HEAR US OUT)

Dairymaid

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QUIZ ANSWER

C) Stores of gunpowder

The raid succeeded in taking Nassau, but the Governor had moved much of the powder before the Americans could seize it.

How’d you do? Reply to this email, and be honest👀

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LATER IS GREATER

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team