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The big story last week was the National Budget Communication, which dominated headlines… as expected.

Other than that, looks like we’re not going to have another pandemic (famous last words), there was a big deal that’s actually a big deal, and Sunday was dead hot.

Let's get into it.

The Davis administration walked into the House of Assembly last Wednesday and tabled a $4.4 billion budget, the largest in Bahamian history, just fifteen days after winning a second term. This is a government that just got a fresh mandate and wants you to know it intends to use it.

Finance Minister Michael Halkitis laid out the headline numbers: $4.4 billion in projected revenue, $4.1 billion in spending, and a $223.1 million surplus. On paper, the country is making more than it spends. Debt as a share of the economy is projected to keep falling. Three major credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody's, and Fitch, have all upgraded or affirmed The Bahamas in the past year. The economic story, as the government tells it, is one of a country that was on its knees in 2021 and is now genuinely back on its feet.

That story has real evidence behind it. Tourism hit 12.5 million visitors in 2025, up 11.4% on the year before. Inflation averaged just 0.6% last year, remarkable for a country that imports almost everything it consumes. Grand Bahamians are being told their electricity bills will drop by roughly 37% following the government's acquisition of the Grand Bahama Power Company. VAT was already removed from unprepared grocery foods in April. For everyday Bahamians, some of this is genuinely being felt.

Unfortunately, the math isn’t always mathing.

That $223.1 million surplus depends almost entirely on one thing going right: a brand new corporate tax on large multinationals, called the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax, delivering $350 million in collections next year. That's nearly triple what the same tax was expected to bring in this year, from a levy that has never been collected before. The government's own fiscal watchdog, the Fiscal Responsibility Council, had already raised doubts about whether even this year's $130 million target would be collected on time. The government's response was to nearly triple the projection for next year. If that number doesn't materialise, the surplus is gone.

There's also a tension at the heart of the revenue forecasts that the budget never resolves. The government is projecting a $470 million revenue increase while simultaneously forecasting that economic growth slows sharply, from 6.5% this year to 1.8% next year. Since Bahamian government revenue is driven largely by economic activity (VAT, customs duties, departure taxes), projecting a revenue surge during a slowdown requires some explaining. None was offered.

Then there's the debt question. The budget puts central government debt at $12.5 billion. The opposition puts the broader public sector figure, including state-owned enterprises, at $14.1 billion. Both numbers can technically be correct. The $1.6 billion gap sits in entities like Bahamas Power and Light and the Water and Sewerage Corporation, whose borrowings don't appear in the main budget figures. Opposition Leader Michael Pintard's claim that Treasury lending to public authorities grew from under $100 million in 2022 to over $600 million today, without clear parliamentary authorization, is not a number the government addressed.

This budget has genuine achievements behind it and real relief measures in it. The Bahamas is in a better fiscal position than it was four years ago, that is simply true. But next year's projections ask you to believe that a new tax will nearly triple its collections during a year the economy is expected to slow significantly. That is a lot of faith to place in one revenue line.

I guess we’ll see…

Since y'all think y’all so smart. We switching subjects this week.

The first newspaper ever published in The Bahamas hit the presses in 1784. What was it called?

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

If you bank with CIBC Caribbean, your bank was just sold.

Bermuda-based Butterfield Bank announced last week it has agreed to acquire CIBC's 91.7% stake in CIBC Caribbean Bank for $1.794 billion, creating a $29 billion institution that, according to Butterfield's own deal presentation, would be the largest bank in the Caribbean region by total assets, ahead of Republic Financial, Scotiabank Caribbean, HSBC Bermuda, and RBC Caribbean.

The deal matters to Bahamians for three reasons.

First, (obviously) CIBC Caribbean operates here. If you have an account, a mortgage, or a business banking relationship with them, your bank is changing ownership. The official line is that nothing changes in the short term. All branches stay open, the regional headquarters stays in Barbados, and a two-year transition agreement with CIBC ensures continuity. That's what every acquiring bank says. Whether it stays true over time depends on the $49 million in annual cost savings Butterfield is targeting by 2030, and where exactly those savings come from.

Second, Butterfield already has a presence in The Bahamas, currently offering wealth management services. This deal moves them from a niche player into full retail and commercial banking here. The Bahamas represents 11% of the combined entity's projected earnings, a meaningful slice.

Third, and most interesting for anyone with a BISX account: after the deal closes, Butterfield intends to pursue a secondary listing on the Bahamas International Securities Exchange. That means Bahamians will be able to buy shares in the Caribbean's largest bank directly on the local exchange.

The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, pending regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions. There’s a lot of regulators to satisfy, and any one of them could slow things down.

The bottom line: The Caribbean banking landscape just got reshuffled. For most CIBC Caribbean customers in Nassau, day-to-day banking won't change anytime soon. But the name on the door eventually will.

🛒 Rupert Roberts, OBE — Gone at 88 The man who built Super Value from a single store into 13 locations across New Providence died Tuesday at the Mayo Clinic. He launched the chain in 1965, became Commonwealth Bank's first chairman, and spent decades being the loudest voice in the room on food prices. Rest in peace.

💊 The two British Airways passengers who spent the past week in isolation at PMH have tested negative for Ebola. They've been released. The Ministry of Health's travel advisory remains in effect, but nobody panic.

🏗️ 30% of Construction Operating in the Black Market That's according to the Bahamian Contractors Association, which estimates the sector generates $600 million annually but the government is only collecting a fraction of the VAT it should. The fix isn't complicated: bring unregistered contractors into the formal sector. The hard part is actually doing it.

🎬 Abaco Girl Books Tyler Perry Kristin McIntosh, 35, from Abaco has landed a recurring guest role on Tyler Perry's hit drama The Oval, contracted for seasons six and seven. She says she prepared for her reporter role by watching old ZNS broadcasts. Bahamian talent, worldwide.

🚗 Ferrari Built an EV. Ferrari Fans Are Not Happy. The legendary Italian carmaker unveiled the Luce, its first electric vehicle, priced at $640,000 and co-designed by former Apple design chief Jony Ive. Reviews range from "unlike any other Ferrari" to "soulless robotaxi." The stock dropped 5% on launch day. Orders opened last week, so the waitlist will tell us everything.

🌡️ Europe is Cooking. Literally. A spring heatwave shattered century-old temperature records across the UK and France this week, with London hitting 95 degrees Fahrenheit, nearly 4 degrees above a record that stood since 1922. At least twelve people have died, mostly from drownings as people tried to cool off. Scientists say events like this are becoming more frequent.

🇨🇴 Colombia's Election Is Heading to a Runoff. Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella topped Sunday's first round but fell short of an outright win. He faces leftist senator Iván Cepeda on June 21. De la Espriella is pro-Trump, tough on crime, and wants stronger US ties.

🌶️ Hot Sauce Is About to Get More Expensive. Jamaica got hit by Hurricane Beryl in 2024, then Hurricane Melissa last October, the strongest in the island's history. The back-to-back blows have devastated Scotch bonnet production and squeezed Caribbean hot sauce makers regionwide.

Travelled thousands of miles. Cleared multiple airports. Made it all the way to Nassau. Still couldn't get in.

The Bay Street Brief, on the other hand, is already in your inbox. And unlike Ebola, we encourage you to spread this thing around. Forward it. Share it. Send it to the group chat. The more people that catch it, the better.

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team