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TOP OF THE MORNING!

Welcome to The Bay Street Brief!

This week we're getting a new ten digit number to memorize, and the national debt rose another $1.3 billion, which is a lot of zeroes for a government that promised us a surplus.

Let's get into it.

IN THE MARKETS

Global markets
Asset / Index Last price / Weekly change % YTD return
BISX All-Share
Bahamas 🇧🇸
3,243.4
+0.4%
▲ 4.3%
S&P 500
US equities 🇺🇸
7,711.5
+0.5%
▲ 12.7%
Euro Stoxx 600
European equities 🇪🇺
655.2
+0.1%
▲ 10.6%
Brent Crude
Oil per barrel 🛢️
$89.31
-5.4%
▲ 46.8%
Gold
Per oz 🥇
$4,459.91
-4.7%
▲ 3.3%
Bitcoin
Crypto ₿
$77,487.38
+0.6%
▼ -11.6%
Nikkei 225
Japan equities 🇯🇵
66,405.6
+0.6%
▲ 31.9%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong equities 🇭🇰
25,584.8
-1.6%
▼ -0.2%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Developing economies 🌎
1,717.1
-0.3%
▲ 22.3%

Wall Street actually had a decent week for once. The S&P and Nasdaq both ticked up, mostly thanks to NVIDIA posting another absurd earnings report (revenue up over 100% from last year) that got the whole tech sector moving again.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first big speech at Jackson Hole and struck a hawkish tone — translation: don't expect rate cuts anytime soon unless inflation actually cooperates. Oil dropped almost 5.4% on hopes that things are calming down around the Strait of Hormuz, and gold gave back some of its recent run too.

Over in Asia, Japan's Nikkei got a lift from the same NVIDIA-fueled chip rally, while Hong Kong slipped after Alibaba raised a massive $10 billion in a stock sale that spooked investors before Nvidia's numbers calmed things back down.

Local markets
The Leaders
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
AML
AML Foods Limited
$10.50
No change
▲ +57.9%
$5.70$10.50
BOB
Bank of the Bahamas
$9.12
No change
▲ +50.5%
$4.50$9.12
FAM
Family Guardian
$8.50
No change
▲ +25.0%
$6.38$8.50
The Slackers
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
FBB
Fidelity Bank Bahamas
$13.44
No change
▼ -17.2%
$13.44$17.01
BFH
Bahamas First Holdings
$2.25
No change
▼ -16.7%
$2.15$2.76
CWCB
Consolidated Water
$5.90
No change
▼ -16.4%
$5.50$6.90

All quiet in local markets this week despite some earnings reports being released!

THE MAIN THING

One Tax One Time

Starting September 1st, every business owner in this country needs to know one new number: your BIN.

That's the ten digit Bahamas Identification Number you'll need to make payments through One Tax Bahamas (OTB), the government's fix for a tax portal that's been creaking under its own weight since VAT launched back in 2015. DIR Director Shunda Strachan says the current system has lost functionality and efficiency over the years as the number of taxpayers, and the number of services the department handles, has kept growing.

Why now? Because patchwork only holds for so long. OTB is meant to eventually be one login covering VAT, business license, real property tax, and other services, with the BIN acting as an umbrella ID number for anyone doing business with DIR, and eventually other government agencies too. Strachan has been clear that this is billed as an upgrade, not a new tax.

Registration for your BIN opens September 1st, though the government was careful to note that's early registration, not the full switch over. Businesses will get time to train up before services actually migrate onto the new platform.

The Bahamas Chamber of Commerce and Employers' Confederation likes that approach. Chamber Chairman Don Williams said BCCEC representatives met with government officials last week to walk through the setup and rollout, and welcomed getting advance notice so businesses can prepare. The Chamber is waiting to actually test the system before passing judgment on whether it delivers what's promised, and Williams made clear the Chamber won't support any new taxes riding in on the back of an "upgrade."

Not everyone is convinced the timeline is right at all. Opposition Leader Michael Pintard wants the whole rollout paused, citing concerns about data protection, cybersecurity, how much consultation actually happened, and whether businesses and taxpayers have been given enough time to prepare.

The bottom line: if you run a business, or even just pay a business license fee or property tax, September 1st is the date to know.

WEEKLY QUIZ

First day of school for government schools today! Prove you shouldn’t be joining them in the classroom this morning.

Solve this dead easy BGCSE question:

At a Junkanoo practice, a group buys 4 bottles of water and 3 sports drinks for $21. Later, they buy 2 bottles of water and 5 sports drinks for $25.

How much does one bottle of water and one sports drink cost?

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

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TINGS TOUGH

The Billion Dollar Question

The Ministry of Finance dropped its year end numbers this week, and one figure stood out. The Bahamas' public sector debt now sits at $14.7 billion, up $1.27 billion, or 9.5%, in a single year.

That jump landed during the very fiscal year the government promised Bahamians something historic: a $75 million budget surplus, meant to start paying debt down instead of piling more on. Instead, the debt went up.

Shadow Finance Minister Kwasi Thompson brought the numbers to life. He pointed out that $1.3 billion is roughly the cost of 26 new schools at $50 million each, or about $10,000 for every one of the country's 130,000 households.

Some of the increase has a clear explanation. Central government debt alone climbed to $12.5 billion, but debt taken on by government agencies and state owned enterprises jumped 35%, largely to cover the Grand Bahama Power Company acquisition and fund a new water desalination project, both of which are meant to pay off down the line. One positive note in the report was that annual debt servicing costs actually fell by a third this year, and more of the debt portfolio is now locked into fixed interest rates, which offers some protection if rates move.

CONCH FRITTERS

From Over Here

🤖 Nassau's newest hires might not be human. Simplified Tech launched humanoid and robot dog assistants this week, starting under $5,000, with plans stretching from hotel reception to hurricane response.

👑 King Charles III is coming to The Bahamas this October, his first visit as monarch and his first trip back since 1973. Cue round two of the "should we become a republic" conversation.

🎬 A Bahamian film is headed to Toronto. Nathan McPhee's short film Visa Blue landed a Best Film nomination at the Toronto International Nollywood Film Festival, screening September 8th.

🏫 The teacher shortage isn't the only staffing problem in schools. Bahamas Union of Teachers President Belinda Wilson says schools are still short on principals too, and wants education officials to fix the gap before students walk back in.

📈 The Bahamian economy remains on solid footing, according to RF Bank & Trust's Head of Investments David Slatter, who points to another record year for tourism and steady construction activity feeding into GDP.

Social Services Director Aneita Duncombe wants disabled parking fines raised to $1,500, six times what's currently proposed. Her bigger worry: laws without enforcement don't actually protect anyone.

✂️ Braids are still banned for boys in public schools, and Deputy Prime Minister Chester Cooper isn't budging, even as students at some private schools wear them freely. His stance: "where it's not broken, we're not going to try to fix it."

From Foreign

🇺🇸 Trump signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario to "Lake America," the same move he pulled on the Gulf of Mexico earlier this year. He can enforce it for US government use, but Canada's under no obligation to play along. He's also floated renaming the Atlantic or Pacific next, so nowhere is safe.

🎢 A legendary Six Flags roller coaster has been shut down since July after two women fell into comas with matching brain hemorrhages days apart, shortly after riding it. One woke up after two weeks. The other still hasn't. CNN found the ride's been linked to a dozen-plus injuries and two deaths over 20 years.

🌊 Flash floods in Nepal and Tibet have killed 390 people, with over 1,400 still missing. A glacier ice avalanche in the Himalayas triggered the disaster, and the number's still climbing.

📵 Meta's paying up to $18 billion to settle a lawsuit over keeping kids hooked on Instagram and Facebook. Teens now get capped at two hours a day, locked out overnight, and muted during school hours. No admission of wrongdoing, but a $10 billion legal bill says plenty.

🛂 The US just froze visa appointments worldwide, officially for "in-depth training." No word on when the desks reopen, so if you're mid-application, this is your sign to keep checking.

LIV Golf laid off most of its staff. The Saudi-backed PGA rival is finding out that money can buy a golf league, but not a good one.

🍗 KFC China just dropped the Oreo chicken burger. Yes, it’s exactly what it sounds like.

PRESENTED BY: (NOT REALLY BUT HEAR US OUT)

Dairymaid

Somewhere out there, a whole generation just found out the building behind their favorite childhood ice cream got demolished this week. No warning, no last scoop, just gone.

We'd like to say it was a shock. It wasn't. That's what happens when you spend zero dollars advertising with The Bay Street Brief for thirty straight years.

Your brand could be here. Unlike Dairymaid, you still have time. Reply to this email to advertise with The Bay Street Brief. 🇧🇸

QUIZ ANSWER

Water = $2.50

Sports drink = $3.67.

How’d you do? Reply to this email, and be honest👀

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LATER IS GREATER

That's all for this week. Check us out on our socials for updates throughout the week.

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team