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TOP OF THE MORNING!

Welcome to The Bay Street Brief!

Downtown Nassau spent the better part of a week without power, which means restaurants lost thousands, tourists sweated through their shopping trips, and somewhere out there, an AC technician bought a boat.

Let's get into it.

IN THE MARKETS

Global markets
Asset / Index Last price / Weekly change % YTD return
BISX All-Share
Bahamas 🇧🇸
3,231.9
-0.2%
▲ 3.9%
S&P 500
US equities 🇺🇸
7,674.4
-1.4%
▲ 12.1%
Euro Stoxx 600
European equities 🇪🇺
654.2
-0.6%
▲ 10.5%
Brent Crude
Oil per barrel 🛢️
$94.39
+6.6%
▲ 55.1%
Gold
Per oz 🥇
$4,680.60
+7.1%
▲ 8.4%
Bitcoin
Crypto ₿
$77,006.00
+22.3%
▼ -12.1%
Nikkei 225
Japan equities 🇯🇵
66,016.4
-3.9%
▲ 31.1%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong equities 🇭🇰
26,009.5
+3.6%
▲ 1.5%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Developing economies 🌎
1,721.9
+3.4%
▲ 22.6%

Wall Street had a rough week. Rising Treasury yields (the 30-year hit levels not seen since 2007), fresh US-Iran tension pushing oil higher, and a slump in AI and chip stocks all had investors nervous, and the S&P 500 gave back 1.4% because of it.

Gold didn't care either way, climbing another 7% as everyone hedges their bets, while oil jumped 6.6% on the same Middle East jitters. Japan took the hardest hit of the majors — the Nikkei fell almost 4% as that same risk-off mood slammed tech and semiconductor names.

China, meanwhile, keeps telling two different stories. The mainland's economic data came in soft again, but Hong Kong stocks rallied and a Shanghai-listed robotics maker's IPO went absolutely wild, more than quadrupling on its debut — proof investors are still hungry for anything "AI," risk-off mood or not.

Local markets
The Leaders
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
AML
AML Foods Limited
$10.50
No change
▲ +57.9%
$5.70$10.50
BOB
Bank of the Bahamas
$9.12
No change
▲ +50.5%
$4.50$9.12
FAM
Family Guardian
$8.50
No change
▲ +25.0%
$6.38$8.50
The Slackers
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
FBB
Fidelity Bank Bahamas
$13.44
No change
▼ -17.2%
$13.44$17.01
BFH
Bahamas First Holdings
$2.25
No change
▼ -16.7%
$2.15$2.76
CWCB
Consolidated Water
$5.90
-5.9%
▼ -16.4%
$5.50$6.90

A quiet week for most of BISX. AML Foods, Bank of Bahamas, and Family Guardian all held steady at their 52-week highs, with AML still the year's top performer at +57.9% YTD and Bank of Bahamas close behind at +50.5%.

Fidelity Bank Bahamas and Bahamas First also sat unchanged, with FBB parked at the floor of its 52-week range. The one name that actually moved was Consolidated Water, sliding almost 6% on the week and still down double digits for the year.

THE MAIN THING

Lights Out On Bay Street

A power outage that started Wednesday afternoon stretched into Thursday, then into Friday, as BPL worked through what it called two separate equipment issues at the East Hill Street Substation… the one that feeds a big chunk of downtown, from Collins Avenue down to Vesey Street.

BPL says its team caught the first issue through routine monitoring, then found a second one overnight while trying to reroute power through the Arawak Cay Substation. Repairs were supposed to take five to six hours. They took a lot longer than that, and downtown wasn't even the only part of Nassau in the dark. Soldier Road, Pinewood, Golden Gates, Lyford Cay, and a bunch of other neighbourhoods all had their own outages the same week.

What it cost: Taj Mahal on Bay Street normally pulls in $3,500–$5,000 a day. Owner Pargan Pawar says he got zero warning from BPL, watched food spoil, sent staff home, and eventually had to move his chefs, who live above the restaurant, to a house across town because it got too hot to sleep there. Down the street, Luryx kept the lights on with a literal power bank just to keep the card machine running, and still estimates $5,000 in lost sales. One retail worker said their store paid $150 twice just to have someone manually open and close the shutters. Cruise passengers noticed too. Several told The Tribune the heat and closed shops were spoiling their trip.

The bottom line: BPL's blaming equipment, and to be fair, the equipment really is old. PM Davis said that over 60% of New Providence's generation gear needs replacing. His government's now promising LNG power starting later this year, scaling up through 2027, and the phase-out of costly rental generators starting in January. Real fixes, if they come on time.

WEEKLY QUIZ

School soon opens back up so let’s see how many of y’all need to go back with the kids.

Solve this dead easy BGCSE question:

A rectangular garden in Nassau is 6 metres longer than it is wide. The owner wants to expand it so that its total area is 135 square metres.

What are the dimensions of the garden?

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

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TINGS TOUGH

Blackouts Are Good For One Business

While Bay Street was losing money in the dark, air conditioning companies were having their best summer in years. Local techs say business is up 30 to 70%, and it's not just the heat, it's the outages themselves frying people's units.

The problem is, every time the power blinks off and on, it sends a surge through your AC's boards and inverters, and those parts are not built for that kind of abuse. "A lot of times, those surges can cause issues, and we have to go and repair these systems," says Nikieva Wallace of Absolute Comfort, which has seen demand jump 30 to 40%. Arctic Air says it's even higher for them, up 50 to 70%.

The best part: fixing or replacing these systems has become more expensive. Refrigerant that used to run about $130 a tank now costs upward of $450, thanks to a shift toward "greener" gases, and import duties on specialty AC parts can run as high as 80%. So people are doing exactly what you'd expect under pressure, buying the cheapest unit available instead of the efficient one, even though techs warn cheaper units pull more power and put more strain on an already shaky grid.

CONCH FRITTERS

From Over Here

🌱 Abaco Wants To Feed Half The Bahamas. The newly formed Abaco Farmers Association says its 10 year goal is to supply 50% of the country's food, starting with a "Ready to Grow" backyard seedling programme to get more households growing their own. Ambitious? Sure. But someone's got to start.

🏦 Butterfield's $1.8B CIBC Caribbean Deal Is Moving. The bank has filed its first round of regulatory paperwork for its acquisition of CIBC Caribbean, still on track to close in the first half of 2027. If it goes through, it roughly doubles Butterfield's size, and Bahamians could eventually see the combined company listed on BISX.

💵 Central Bank Says Stop Printing Money Themed Merch. Officially, anyway. The regulator has ordered anyone making souvenirs, coins, or products that resemble Bahamian banknotes to cease and desist, warning that unauthorized reproductions could mean prosecution.

🔥 Original Patties Hit By Early Morning Fire. A blaze tore through the bakery's Tonique Williams-Darling Highway building on Sunday, destroying stock, freezers, offices, and a company van. No injuries, but the cause is still under investigation. Tough break for a Bahamian institution that's been making patties since 1982.

From Foreign

🫐 The Blueberry Recall Just Got Serious. The FDA bumped its recall of Publix's frozen GreenWise blueberries up to a Class 1, its most severe warning, after linking them to an E. coli outbreak that's sickened at least 12 people. The berries are off shelves, but some have expiration dates stretching into 2028, so check your freezer if you're the stock up type.

🧑‍⚖️ China's Most Famous Bankrupt Billionaire Gets Life. Hui Ka Yan, the founder of collapsed property giant Evergrande, was sentenced to life in prison for fraud tied to the company's $300 billion plus meltdown. He was once China's richest man. Now he's the face of its property crisis.

💉 A Cancer Vaccine Just Had A Very Good Day. Moderna and Merck announced strong late stage trial results for a personalized mRNA vaccine that, paired with Merck's Keytruda, helps melanoma patients stay in remission longer and lowers the odds it spreads. Moderna's stock jumped 177%, Merck's climbed 13%, and both companies are now testing the approach on other cancers, including lung, bladder, and kidney tumors.

📦 Amazon's Bringing Drones To 500 More Cities. Prime Air is expanding fast, with drones delivering packages under 5 pounds in as little as 30 minutes. Rollout starts soon in Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, Boise, and Syracuse, with more markets to follow.

🤖 ChatGPT Now Has A Teen Version. OpenAI launched ChatGPT for Teens for users aged 13 to 17, with content restrictions around topics like self harm and sex, guided rather than direct homework help, and guardrails stopping the AI from claiming it has feelings for users. The move comes as the company faces multiple lawsuits alleging its chatbot has put minors at risk.

PRESENTED BY: (NOT REALLY BUT HEAR US OUT)

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LATER IS GREATER

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team