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TOP OF THE MORNING!

Welcome to The Bay Street Brief!

Last wee another fence on Cabbage Beach led to a rescue, a protest and an arrest, gas is headed to $7.50 a gallon, and the unions want the government to take BTC back.

Let's get into it.

IN THE MARKETS

Global markets
Asset / Index Last price / Weekly change % YTD return
BISX All-Share
Bahamas 🇧🇸
3,340.0
+2.3%
▲ 7.4%
S&P 500
US equities 🇺🇸
7,722.7
-0.3%
▲ 12.8%
Euro Stoxx 600
European equities 🇪🇺
631.4
-1.1%
▲ 6.6%
Brent Crude
Oil per barrel 🛢️
$102.25
-2.1%
▲ 68.0%
Gold
Per oz 🥇
$4,140.19
-3.4%
▼ -4.1%
Bitcoin
Crypto ₿
$84,515.50
+0.6%
▼ -3.6%
Nikkei 225
Japan equities 🇯🇵
68,309.5
+2.9%
▲ 35.7%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong equities 🇭🇰
23,972.3
-2.2%
▼ -6.5%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Developing economies 🌎
1,708.9
-1.4%
▲ 21.7%

Wall Street had a split personality this week. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% even as the Nasdaq touched a fresh record, after a surprisingly weak jobs report (just 29,000 new US jobs in September, against roughly 90,000 expected) cooled bets on another Fed rate hike. Brent crude spiked above $108 early in the week on Iran headlines, then eased to $102.25 as more oil squeezed through the Strait of Hormuz. That breather hasn't reached our pumps yet (gas just hit $7.50 a gallon here), and since the Bahamian dollar is pegged to the US one, their oil prices and borrowing costs end up on our tab sooner or later.

Europe had a rougher ride, with the STOXX 600 down 1.1%. Eurozone inflation jumped to 3.8% in September (economists expected 3.6%), so the European Central Bank isn't likely to ease up on rates anytime soon. France added its own drama, with investors nervous about whether its 2027 budget survives parliament.

Japan's Nikkei rallied another 2.9% on AI chip excitement and is now up 35.7% for the year, though hotter Tokyo inflation has the Bank of Japan eyeing more rate hikes. China went the other way: mainland markets shut for Golden Week, and when Hong Kong reopened Friday the Hang Seng took its worst single-day hit since March, finishing the week down 2.2% on rising US yields and a Beijing stimulus package that underwhelmed.

Local markets
The Leaders
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
AML
AML Foods Limited
$11.50
No change
▲ +72.9%
$6.55$11.50
FAM
Family Guardian
$10.50
+4.9%
▲ +54.4%
$6.80$10.50
BOB
Bank of the Bahamas
$8.15
-0.7%
▲ +34.5%
$5.50$9.50
The Slackers
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
FBB
Fidelity Bank Bahamas
$12.18
No change
▼ -25.0%
$12.00$16.30
CWCB
Consolidated Water
$5.76
+3.4%
▼ -18.4%
$5.50$6.90
BFH
Bahamas First Holdings
$2.40
+9.1%
▼ -11.1%
$2.00$3.15

The BISX All-Share had its strongest week in months, up 2.3% to 3,340.0. Family Guardian (FAM) jumped 4.9% to a fresh 52-week high of $10.50, tightening its grip on second place, and FOCOL (FCL) quietly surged 13.5% just outside the podium. Down at the bottom, Bahamas First (BFH) bounced 9.1% and Consolidated Water (CWCB) clawed back 3.4%, but Fidelity Bank Bahamas (FBB) didn't budge and still owns the year's ugliest scoreboard at -25.0%.

THE MAIN THING

Beach Please

Last month, a fence went up at Cabbage Beach and came down within days. Then a second one went up, and this time it ended with a tourist pulled from rough water, protesters tearing at the fence, and an arrest.

So what gone down?

The fence belongs to the $550m Four Seasons Ocean Club Residences, a luxury development next to the beach on Paradise Island, backed by Access Industries, Two Roads Development and Four Seasons. Construction is expected to run about three and a half years.

Round one came in late August. About 22 vendors, some with 30 years on that sand, arrived to find fencing going up near the shoreline with no word on where their stalls fit. The Ministry of Tourism said work started before a promised walk-through with the developers happened. The fence came down on August 30 after DEPP stepped in.

Round two things got a little wild. The government's explanation shifted to beach erosion, with DEPP saying fencing and pilings would be needed as temporary protection. A new fence went up. On Sunday, September 27, a 60-year-old American tourist, was swept into rough seas while trying to get around it. Freetown MP Lincoln Deal, who was already at the beach protesting the fence, joined lifeguards and bystanders in the rescue, and she was given CPR before being taken off by ambulance.

That night, the government said the developers must remove it or it would be removed. Environment Minister Zane Lightbourne said the temporary fence was permitted without the required notice and public advisory period. The next day, Coalition of Independents leader Lincoln Bain and others began taking down sections themselves. Bain was arrested, and says he was released without charge. By midweek, Lightbourne confirmed the developers will comply, though he couldn't say when. He also said a fence is needed as part of the construction process.

Here's the thing… on paper, everyone agrees Cabbage Beach stays public. The fight is over the paper trail: who approved this fence line, how close it sits to the high-water mark, and whether the erosion explanation holds up. Advocacy group Dis We Beach wants the surveyed fence line published, and wants to know whether beach access was a condition of the original approvals. Deal has questioned the erosion rationale. The government says the measures are temporary and meant to protect the beach and public safety.

What this means for you

If you like to go to Cabbage, the post-construction plan promises a 15-foot landscaped public path. Existing vendors would get first pick of kiosks at $1 a month. For the 27 vendors reported to be facing relocation, the problem is the gap: as of September, there was still no written agreement guaranteeing they return once construction ends.

WEEKLY QUIZ

Solve this dead easy BGCSE question:

Which year did the Bahamian House of Assembly meet for the first time?

A) 1718
B) 1729
C) 1776
D) 1805

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

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TINGS TOUGH

Full Tank, Empty Wallet

If you filled up this weekend, treasure that memory. Gas is climbing to $7.50 a gallon, a 44 cent jump, according to Peter Roker of Roker's Gas Station. He also warned that gas station operators may have to cut hours and staff.

Why now?

The Bahamas imports its fuel, so we pay whatever the world is charging, and the world is charging a lot:

  • Hormuz is still shut. Iran says the strait stays closed until seven conditions from a June US-Iran agreement are met.

  • The fighting is spreading. A Saudi-backed offensive in Yemen has the Houthis claiming a hit on an Aramco facility in Riyadh, and the Red Sea shipping lane is in play.

  • There's no cushion. Aramco's CEO says global oil stockpiles are "scarily thin."

  • Money is expensive too. The US 10-year Treasury yield hit a 52-week high of 5.315% on October 5.

Higher prices at the pump hit us pretty quickly… with this price increase, the cost to fill your tank just jumped by nearly $7.00. The bigger problem perhaps is that when the price of fuel stays elevated for too long, that starts to bleed into almost everything else.

I kid you not, this past Friday my barber raised the cost of my haircut by $10 and blamed it on gas prices, as if I didn’t drive to him. Where will the madness end?

CONCH FRITTERS

From Over Here

🛬 Western Air has stopped flying to North Eleuthera over a sunken, uneven runway, with its last flight on October 2, just before the Harbour Island Homecoming (October 8 to 12). The Ministry of Works plans emergency resurfacing, separate from a larger IDB-financed rebuild. No cost or timeline has been given.

👑 King Charles III visits The Bahamas October 27 to 29. The itinerary includes a youth rally at Clifford Park, marine conservation education, a Junkanoo parade, stops at Parliament Square and the Defence Force base, and a garden reception at Government House.

📡 Two unions want the government to take back majority ownership of BTC, calling the 2011 privatisation a failure. BCPOU's Sherry Benjamin and BCPMU's Sharazed Pickstock cite a sixth executive departure in 15 years, declining revenue and stalled network investment.

⚖️ LawBey is The Bahamas' nominee for the 2026 World Summit Awards, in the Government and Citizen Engagement category, the first Bahamian entry in the competition. The free platform explains more than 300 Bahamian laws in plain language.

🏦 The government plans to scrap VAT on trust services and on property transfers into trusts for family members, Economic Affairs Minister Jerome Fitzgerald said, with legislation due before year-end. The AIBT chairman notes Cayman, BVI, Bermuda and Guernsey charge no VAT.

From Foreign

🌍 The Middle East conflict widened over the weekend. Yemen's Saudi-backed government launched a major offensive against the Houthis, Turkey and Pakistan pledged troops to Saudi Arabia, and the US evacuated B-1 bombers from a UK base over a threat of Iranian drone attack.

🇧🇷 Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are heading to a presidential runoff after Sunday's first round. The incumbent president and the senator were neck and neck in pre-election polling.

🇪🇸 Spain's Pedro Sánchez has called a snap election for November 29 after Parliament rejected his minority government's housing-relief measures amid protests over affordability. Polls suggest the conservative People's Party, possibly backed by far-right Vox, could win.

📦 The US and China have recommended tariff cuts on about $60 billion of goods, $30 billion each way, from toys and bed linen to coal and wheat. The cuts are still proposals with no start date, and US soybeans aren't on China's list.

🏖️ A Jamaican court has ordered unrestricted public access to Little Dunn's River Beach in Ocho Rios until a lawsuit over access is decided. The state-owned UDC says it will comply but plans to appeal, and can't guarantee security, lifeguards or sanitation.

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QUIZ ANSWER

B) 1729

The House of Assembly first met on September 29th, 1729, making it one of the oldest legislative assemblies in the Western Hemisphere.

How’d you do? Reply to this email, and be honest👀

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LATER IS GREATER

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team