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TOP OF THE MORNING!

Welcome to The Bay Street Brief!

The soft launch of a happy hour at this dead solid secret speakeasy on Bay Street is this Thursday. If you’ve never been we highly recommend you check it out.

Let's get into it.

IN THE MARKETS

Global markets
Asset / Index Last price / Weekly change % YTD return
BISX All-Share
Bahamas 🇧🇸
3,277.3
+0.2%
▲ 5.4%
S&P 500
US equities 🇺🇸
7,650.5
-0.1%
▲ 11.8%
Euro Stoxx 600
European equities 🇪🇺
635.5
-0.6%
▲ 7.3%
Brent Crude
Oil per barrel 🛢️
$101.73
-2.8%
▲ 67.2%
Gold
Per oz 🥇
$4,378.08
+0.7%
▲ 1.4%
Bitcoin
Crypto ₿
$81,791.38
+5.7%
▼ -6.7%
Nikkei 225
Japan equities 🇯🇵
65,019.0
+1.6%
▲ 29.2%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong equities 🇭🇰
24,750.8
-0.2%
▼ -3.4%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Developing economies 🌎
1,710.9
-2.5%
▲ 21.8%

The rate hike traders were pencilling in last week? It happened. The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023, with no dissenters, and signalled one more before year-end. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%, while small caps took the hit (the Russell 2000 fell 1.5%). Brent ended at $101.73, down 2.8% on the week but still up 67.2% this year. With the Bahamian dollar pegged to the U.S. dollar, higher U.S. rates and pricey fuel tend to find their way to Nassau.

Europe had a wobblier week. The Stoxx 600 dipped 0.6% as oil and gas prices stoked inflation worries, with eurozone inflation climbing to 3.2% in August and UK inflation to 3.1%. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, but three of its nine policymakers voted to hike.

Japan had the best week of our stock markets. The Nikkei rose 1.6% after the Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, and a weaker yen helped exporters. China was a split screen: the Shanghai Composite gained 0.6% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2%, as factories hummed (industrial output up 5.2%) but retail sales grew just 0.4%. Emerging markets overall fell 2.5%.

Local markets
The Leaders
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
AML
AML Foods Limited
$11.50
No change
▲ +72.9%
$6.55$11.50
FAM
Family Guardian
$10.01
+10.0%
▲ +47.2%
$6.80$10.01
BOB
Bank of the Bahamas
$8.21
-10.0%
▲ +35.5%
$5.50$9.50
The Slackers
Company Last price / Weekly change % YTD return 52-week range
FBB
Fidelity Bank Bahamas
$12.18
-9.4%
▼ -25.0%
$12.00$16.30
CWCB
Consolidated Water
$5.70
+1.6%
▼ -19.3%
$5.50$6.90
BFH
Bahamas First Holdings
$2.20
+6.8%
▼ -18.5%
$2.00$3.15

Two bank stocks had a week they'd like to forget. Fidelity Bank Bahamas (FBB) fell 9.4% and is now the year's biggest loser, down 25.0%, while Bank of the Bahamas (BOB) dropped 10.0%. Family Guardian (FAM) jumped 10.0% to a new 52-week high and overtook BOB for second place behind AML Foods, unchanged at $11.50. BFH and CWCB both bounced but are still down more than 18% for the year.

THE MAIN THING

Account-Ability

The National Investment Fund dominated headlines last week… and it wasn’t pretty. Let’s break it down.

In 2022, the government created the National Investment Fund (NIF), a national savings-and-infrastructure account with a Board of Governors meant to run it. Last week, Central Bank Governor John Rolle told Opposition Leader Michael Pintard the board "has not been formally convened in respect of any matter."

Yet an account in the fund's name has sat at the Central Bank since July 2025. Government reports show it held $265.3 million in December 2025 and $200,000 by March. Separately, Finance Minister Michael Halkitis says about $700 million in extra borrowing was moved in during 2025/26.

Why this matters

Here's the simple version. The NIF Act says only the board can open the fund's bank accounts. The board never formally met. So who opened the account?

Pintard's answer: nobody lawfully did. He calls it "grand fraud with public money."

Now you don't need to buy the fraud talk to want answers. Fidelity Bank CEO Gowon Bowe, a former Fiscal Responsibility Council member, stopped short of alleging wrongdoing. But he says that when you skip the normal controls, you owe people a full accounting, and an independent audit, "with haste."

The government's case

Halkitis says no law was broken. He cites a March 2025 parliamentary resolution and the Public Finance Management Act, which let the Finance Ministry run the money until the fund's rules are finished, "definitely before the end of the year." (The Tribune reports the resolution covered up to $300 million. The Opposition says it allowed borrowing, not spending the proceeds.)

He says $310.9 million has been spent: $210.6 million on roads, buildings and water, and $100.3 million on Family Island airports. Tribune Business notes the Act appears to allow infrastructure spending. Prime Minister Philip Davis rejected the fraud label, saying the transfers were in the government's own reports: "It wasn't hidden."

Here's the thing

The two big stories this week may be one story. National debt rose about $1 billion in 2025/26, yet the deficit for the ten months to April was only $121.2 million. Tribune Business suggests the $700 million sitting in the NIF, held as cash instead of paying bills, could explain the gap. That's their inference, not a government admission.

The Opposition calls it "off-the-books" spending ahead of the May election. Halkitis says it was all lawful. What's undisputed: $310.9 million has been itemized, Pintard says more than $400 million hasn't, and Davis didn't address that when asked.

Davis sees "no alarm" on the debt. By his numbers, debt-to-GDP fell from over 100 percent to 60 to 70 percent, and rating agencies have upgraded the country twice. Pintard says the borrowing could have bought a lot of ambulances and scanners. Both can be true.

The bottom line

Everyone agrees there's a governance gap. Whether it's a paperwork problem or something bigger depends on an accounting nobody has published yet.

What to watch: The Public Accounts Committee plans to question Treasurer Barbara Zonicle. The FNM says court action is possible once it has its legal opinion. And Halkitis has set himself a year-end deadline.

THE BAY STREET BRIEF & THE LUCERNE PRESENT:

The Dividend

The Dividend pays out on Thursday.

A secret speakeasy on Bay Street, a few seats, and a happy hour like no other.

Thursday, September 24th, 5:30pm. $15, first drink on us.

WEEKLY QUIZ

Let’s give the math a break. This week, history

Solve this dead easy BGCSE question:

Bahamian women cast their first votes in a general election in which year?

Check the bottom of the newsletter for the answer.

IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD

No Charge, No Problem?

Trinidad and Tobago has arrested more than 5,800 people during its latest stretch of emergency rule. About 2,250 of them, nearly four in ten, still haven't been charged with anything.

Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar told parliament the emergency won't be extended. It's set to expire this week.

In case you didn't know

A state of emergency is a legal declaration that gives a government extra powers to deal with a crisis. In Trinidad and Tobago, those powers included the ability to arrest and jail people without charge, and some civil liberties were suspended. The country has used one on and off since 2024, and the latest stretch ran about six months.

The government says it was needed. Gang violence had escalated, including multiple killings and mass shootings. The country of about 1.4 million people recorded a record 624 killings in 2024. Police say that fell to 369 in 2025, and this year's 255 so far is about 5% below the same point last year. The government also claims a 14% drop in serious crime.

Critics point to who got caught up. That includes a prominent businessman and his wife, held over an alleged plot to kill the prime minister, then released without charge. Criston Williams, a lawyer for detainees, says clients arrive "blindfolded, shackled, hands behind their backs." He expects some to sue and wants the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to investigate.

Both sides have a point though: fewer killings on one hand, and a lot of arrests that went nowhere on the other.

Instead of declaring emergencies, the prime minister says she'll bring permanent legislation for targeted operations against gangs, illegal weapons and the networks that fund them, with judicial oversight and parliamentary accountability.

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CONCH FRITTERS

From Over Here

🪨 Bahama Rock was due to halt production Friday, and 69 hourly workers are furloughed for up to 60 days from today. The company says its permitted limestone is nearly gone and wants to mine the former Bahamas Cement site. The government opposes the expansion, though the environmental review continues, and residents worry about blasting and dust.

🇪🇺 The Bahamas is off the EU's tax blacklist, along with Belize, Seychelles and Turks and Caicos. The OECD softened its recommendations on how the country enforces economic substance rules. The Prime Minister had told Brussels to "take your economic feet off our necks." Twelve jurisdictions remain listed.

🔍 Parliament's spending watchdog has been busy outside the NIF. Its CARIFTA 2023 report says a roughly $500,000 advance, repaid to the CEO's firm, bypassed procurement rules, though it found no missing money. It's also finishing a probe into $1.5 million in pre-election building vouchers carrying PLP candidates' names. The party denies taxpayer money funded its campaign.

🩺 Nurses Union president Muriel Lightbourn survived a bid to remove her, but nurses are still waiting on a new contract. A judge rejected the challenge while ruling her suspension of two board members unlawful. Talks on a new five-year agreement began in February, and she says a deal is close.

✈️ A proposed $775 fee on every flight through Bahamian airspace has resort operators watching bookings.Overflight fees now run about $8.50 to $51 per 100 nautical miles. Atlantis's Audrey Oswell says guests are price-sensitive but "we have not seen any impact so far." Baha Mar's Robert Sands says it's too early to tell.

💡 FOCOL's profit rose 50.1% to $44.4 million for the year ended September 2025, on revenue up 4%. RoyalStar Assurance CEO Anton Saunders has joined its board. The company also says its power plants are ready to run on LNG once the import facility opens in early 2027.

From Foreign

🧓 Warren Buffett, 96, has stepped down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway. His son Howard takes over as chairman, as planned, and Warren becomes chairman emeritus. He told shareholders he'll stay on as one, writing that "Father Time always wins." Berkshire's stock dipped modestly on the news.

✈️ Boeing's 777X certification is slipping into 2027, now seven years behind its original schedule. CEO Kelly Ortberg blames an engine seal issue that's holding up approval for long-haul flights. He still expects some deliveries next year, though an analyst says late in the year is likelier. A possible engineers' strike after October 6 could stall testing further.

🌍 Guyana's Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett is the frontrunner to become the next UN Secretary-General. She topped August's informal Security Council poll with eight "encourage" votes, narrowly ahead of two rivals with seven each. Outgoing chief António Guterres's term ends December 31. She'd be the first Caribbean national to lead the UN.

🇮🇷 The US will let Iran's delegation attend the UN General Assembly, even though the two countries are at war.The delegation is smaller than last year's, with restrictions on travel and a ban on luxury shopping. The move came a day after Washington refused visas to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who the General Assembly then voted, 152 to 3, to let address it by video.

📰 The White House has blocked CNN, MS NOW and Politico reporters after Trump announced a ban on the three outlets. He says they report "FICTION and LIES," and cited frustration building over two years. The outlets and the White House Correspondents' Association call it a First Amendment violation. Courts sided with the press in past access fights, though the AP case is still on appeal.

🚗 General Motors is now making parts for Patriot missiles. Lockheed Martin says GM delivered its first batch of interceptor housings in August, 22 days after signing the contract. The Pentagon wants Patriot output more than tripled, and a government watchdog says the US has used up as much as two-thirds of its interceptors in the Iran war.

QUIZ ANSWER

1962.

If you said 1967, fair guess, since that's the Majority Rule election everyone remembers. But women first voted in the November 1962 general election, after Parliament passed the law in 1961.

How’d you do? Reply to this email, and be honest👀

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LATER IS GREATER

That's all for this week. Check us out on our socials for updates throughout the week.

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Until next time.

— The Bay Street Brief Team